Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
