Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
